Sherrod Brown Dealt Polling Blow in Ohio Senate Race Against Bernie Moreno

Incumbent Senator Sherrod Brown, an Ohio Democrat, is narrowly trailing his Republican challenger Bernie Moreno, according to new polling released on Sunday.
Former President Donald Trump, the GOP’s presidential nominee, won Ohio in 2016 and 2020. The state also has a Republican governor and Trump’s running mate, Senator JD Vance, hails from Ohio as well. However, the state also went for former Democratic President Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012, and Brown has held his Senate seat since 2007.
Brown not only aims to hold the seat for Democrats, but also to help his party hold onto their very narrow Senate majority, which is currently 51 to 49. Democrats are already expected to lose West Virginia, with Senator Joe Manchin retiring and popular Republican Governor Jim Justice angling to replace him. As a result, Democrats need to hold onto every other seat they are defending or somehow manage to pick up a seat in a conservative-leaning state.
While polls have consistently shown Brown leading Moreno, a businessman, in recent months, new polling from ActiVote published on Sunday showed the Democrat down by 2.2 percentage points. The survey, which was conducted from August 16 to September 22, has the Republican with 51.1 percent support compared to the Democratic incumbent’s 48.9 percent.
The survey results show Moreno is leading with rural and suburban voters, as well as among men and white voters. Brown leads among urban voters, as well as among women and low-income voters. The poll included 400 likely Ohio voters and had a margin of error of 4.9 percent, meaning Moreno’s narrow lead is well within the survey’s margin of error.
Newsweek reached out to the Brown and Moreno campaigns via email for comment on Sunday afternoon.
Polling released Thursday by Morning Consult had Brown up by 2 points over Moreno. The Democrat had the backing of 46 percent of likely Ohio voters and the Republican had the support of 44 percent. The survey was carried out from September 9 to 18 and included 1,488 likely voters.
Emerson College survey data from September 3 to 5 showed Brown ahead by 3 percent. The incumbent senator was supported by 46 percent of likely voters compared to 43 percent who backed his GOP opponent. The poll included 945 likely voters.
The Cook Political Report currently rates the Ohio Senate race as a “toss up.”
Vance won his 2022 Senate election in the Midwestern state by 6.6 points, winning 53.3 percent of the vote compared to his Democratic opponent Tim Ryan’s 46.7 percent. In 2020, Trump won the state with 53.3 percent of the vote compared to President Joe Biden’s 45.2 percent.
Although Brown has been regularly ahead of his GOP challenger in the polling this year, Harris has consistently trailed Trump in Ohio. ABC’s polling analysis site FiveThirtyEight currently shows Harris down by 9.4 points, with Trump at 52 percent compared to her 42.6 percent. RealClear Polling’s average has Trump ahead by 9 points, with Harris at 43 percent and the Republican at 52 percent.